Indicador de problemas

Leido en el FT de hoy: el precio de los credit default swaps puede marcar un punto de no retorno para la deuda española cuando, en el cds a 5 años, se alcancen los 600-650 puntos. Así lo cuentan en http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/27543d1c-f27f-11df-a2f3-00144feab49a.html#axzz15a9TrdUB:

"The spread currently trades at 257bp. A recent note from Credit Suisse analysts warned that 650bp was the point at which Spain would lurch into a crisis. Mr Fonkenell says: “Six hundred basis points is the benchmark for me. It is the point of no return.”

“The Irish problem will be contained,” says Guillaume Fonkenell, chief investment officer at Pharo, one of Europe’s biggest and most successful macro funds, which specialises in trading on macroeconomic events and trends. “For us contagion is the issue . . . If the market loses confidence in Spain, then all bets are off. Spain is too big to bail.”